How a rise in energy bills will affect you from July

Energy bills for UK residents are set to increase starting in July [1], adding pressure to household budgets amid broader global energy market instability. The scheduled rise in domestic energy costs comes as global oil markets face significant disruption. A worldwide fuel crisis, triggered by a war between Iran and a U.S.-Israel coalition, has severely constrained supplies [3]. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for around 20% of the world's oil trade, and attacks on energy infrastructure have driven up global oil prices [3]. This geopolitical strain is a key factor influencing energy costs internationally, including in the UK [1]. Concurrently, recent U.S. fiscal policy has shifted incentives away from renewable energy. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law in July 2025, phases out some clean energy tax credits established in earlier legislation and promotes fossil fuels over renewables [2]. While a direct U.S. statute does not set UK prices, this policy direction contributes to a global investment landscape less favorable to alternatives that could mitigate price volatility. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the U.S. law would increase the budget deficit by $2.8 trillion by 2034 [2], indicating the scale of its fiscal impact. Economies worldwide are expected to be adversely affected by the ongoing fuel crisis, with risks of inflation and recession heightened [3]. For UK consumers, the July increase is a direct manifestation of these complex, intersecting pressures in the global energy system [1].