Is U.S. fertility at an all-time low? It depends how you measure it

The U.S. total fertility rate fell to a historic low of 1.60 in 2024, but other measures of childbearing show a more stable picture, according to a Pew Research Center analysis [1]. The general fertility rate also hit a record low that year, while the average number of children born to women at the end of their reproductive years has held steady for decades [1]. The general fertility rate, which tracks births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, dropped to fewer than 54 in 2024 and has declined almost every year since the Great Recession [1]. Preliminary data suggests it dipped further in 2025 [1]. The total fertility rate, a hypothetical estimate of lifetime births based on current age-specific rates, reached its lowest point at 1.60 the same year [1]. Both measures are sensitive to the timing of childbirth. When women delay having children, fewer births occur in a given year, which can suppress these rates even if women eventually have the same number of children as earlier generations [1]. The number of children ever born — the average for women ages 40 to 44, who have typically completed childbearing — tells a different story. That figure has hovered between 1.90 and 2.00 since 1990, bottoming out at 1.86 in 2006 before reaching 1.92 in 2024 [1]. This stability reflects a long-running shift in the age at which women start families. The average age at first birth has risen, births to teens and women in their early 20s have fallen sharply, and births to women in their 30s and early 40s have increased [1]. Declining fertility is not unique to the United States. Generation Alpha, the cohort born from the early 2010s onward, arrived during a period of falling fertility rates across much of the world [3]. Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, also entered adulthood amid declining global fertility and have continued to have fewer children than their predecessors [4]. Economic disruption has played a role: millennials faced high levels of youth unemployment, student debt, and childcare costs following the Great Recession and the COVID-19 recession [4]. U.S. population growth has been sustained in part by immigration. The Census Bureau reported in late 2024 that net international migration had more than offset lower birth rates, accounting for the majority of the nation's growth since 2021 [2]. The country's population reached an estimated 341.8 million on July 1, 2025, growing by 0.5% over the prior year, though that growth rate slowed as net international migration fell to a record low in 2025 [2]. Public opinion on declining childbearing is mixed. In a 2025 survey, 53% of Americans said fewer people choosing to have children would have a negative impact on the country, while 20% said it would be positive and 26% said it would be neither [1]. A 56% majority said the federal government should not encourage more people to have children [1]. Among those who favor government involvement, providing more tax credits for parents drew broad bipartisan support: 82% of Democrats and Democratic leaners and 81% of Republicans and GOP leaners said they would favor such a policy [1].