Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, July 6: Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates edged lower this week as markets absorbed a weaker-than-expected June jobs report, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.38% APR on Monday, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow ^[1]. By Tuesday, the rate had ticked down to 6.36% APR ^[2]. The decline followed the release of the June employment data, which showed a gain of 57,000 jobs, well below the projected 100,000 or more ^[1][2]. The unemployment rate also dropped, but the decline was attributed to fewer Americans looking for work rather than robust hiring ^[1].

A softening labor market makes the Federal Reserve less likely to raise the federal funds rate at its upcoming meeting ^[1][2]. Despite this, markets are still placing the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at roughly one in four ^[2]. NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter noted that the labor force is aging and that immigration policies have stymied a major source of continued labor force growth ^[2]. She added that employers across industries have been adding jobs in 2026, with an average of 92,000 jobs added per month ^[2].

The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its policy decisions influence borrowing costs throughout the economy ^[1]. An anticipated rate increase from the Fed is generally enough to put upward pressure on mortgage rates ^[1]. The central bank's goal is a healthy economy, achieved by focusing on price stability and maximum employment ^[1]. Higher interest rates slow inflation by discouraging business borrowing and expansion, which can also slow hiring ^[1].

June was the fourth consecutive month of job gains, but the figure was modest, and gains for April and May were revised downward ^[1]. The weaker employment data has led mortgage interest rates to soften, but if the Fed continues to signal potential rate hikes, rates are not likely to fall far ^[1]. The next inflation data, due the following week, could further firm up the case for higher rates ^[1].