Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, June 29: Basically Flat

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage held nearly flat at the start of the week, with two reports placing it at 6.25% and 6.23% APR.

NerdWallet reported the rate at 6.25% APR on Monday, one basis point lower than the prior session but six basis points higher than a week earlier ^[1]. A separate NerdWallet update on Tuesday cited a rate of 6.23% APR, a decline of 12 basis points from the previous week ^[2]. A basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage rates are influenced by Federal Reserve policy decisions, though the central bank does not set them directly ^[1][2]. Derivatives traders are increasingly betting that the Fed could raise the federal funds rate as early as July, with a majority forecasting higher rates by September ^[1]. Market expectations alone can put upward pressure on borrowing costs ^[1].

Rates also react to inflation reports, job numbers, and global news ^[2]. The June jobs report, due Thursday, is the largest employment data release of the week ^[1]. Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, said three months of solid labor market data have shifted the balance of risks toward inflation, making higher rates a greater possibility ^[1]. A strong jobs report would be a further signal that the Fed is likely to raise rates sooner rather than later ^[1].

For homeowners considering refinancing, NerdWallet advises that it may make sense if current rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point below the existing mortgage rate ^[1][2]. Borrowers who can afford a purchase at today's rates should not delay waiting for lower rates, because they can refinance later if conditions improve ^[1].