Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, June 8: Down, for Now

Mortgage rates moved in opposite directions this week, with one report showing a decline and another an increase, as markets reacted to developments in the Iran war and looked ahead to a Federal Reserve meeting.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.34% APR on Monday, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow ^[1]. The following day, a separate NerdWallet report showed the average rate rising to 6.43% APR ^[2]. The two data points reflect the intraday and day-to-day volatility that has characterized the mortgage market.

Since the Iran war began 100 days ago, the conflict has had a major influence over mortgage rates ^[1]. When tensions escalate and investors worry about rising oil prices, rates tend to rise, while positive developments toward peace negotiations can send them down ^[1]. President Trump said in an interview Friday that the U.S. and Iran were "very close" to signing agreements that could end the war, a message that may have contributed to the Monday decline ^[1]. However, Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend for the first time since April, threatening to prolong the war and push rates back up ^[1].

Mortgage rates are constantly changing because a major part of how they are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, and global news ^[1]. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet one week from Tuesday ^[2]. Mortgage lenders often start pricing in expected cuts or hikes from the Federal Reserve well ahead of the actual announcements ^[2]. Though the central bankers are unlikely to make changes at their meeting later this month, if it begins to look like the Fed is likely to raise rates, that will probably increase upward pressure on mortgage rates ^[1].